Tuesday, February 5, 2008


From Talking Points Memo.

There's one guarantee I can make right now about tonight's results. They are going take make either Zogby or SurveyUSA look like complete fools. Which one I'm not completely sure, but definitely one of them.

Consider this spread. Zogby has his final California number as Obama 49%, Clinton 36%. SurveyUSA has Obama 42%, Clinton 52%.

I think that may be the starkest spread; but down the line Zogby has immense momentum behind Obama and a series of results that would bring him in with something between a solid and a smashing win. Meanwhile, SurveyUSA has close to the exact opposite. Comparing these numbers to other polling organizations they're both somewhat outliers, though Zogby's results are closer to the average of other polls than SurveyUSA.

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