Good to See the US' Influence Remains Strong Among Our Allies

Will Bush thank the Iranians for helping to avert yet another disaster in Iraq? From CNN.

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Iran was integral in persuading Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to halt attacks by his militia on Iraqi security forces, an Iraqi lawmaker said Monday.

Haidar al-Abadi, who is with Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, said Iraqi Shiite lawmakers traveled Friday to Iran to meet with al-Sadr. They returned Sunday, the day al-Sadr told his Mehdi Army fighters to stand down.

News of Iran's involvement in the cease-fire talks came as an al-Maliki spokesman said operations targeting "outlaws" in the Shiite stronghold of Basra would end when the mission's goals were achieved. Earlier, al-Maliki spokesman Sami al-Askari said the operation would be over by week's end, but he later recanted on the timetable.

The lawmakers who traveled to Iran to broker the cease-fire were from five Shiite parties, including the Sadrist movement. Al-Abadi would not say where in Iran the meeting was held...

In Iraq, The Law of Unintended Consequences Rides Again

Who knew that participating in a civil war in the Middle East would be so difficult? From the Washington Independent. Via Atrios.

By Spencer Ackerman 03/26/2008 10:46AM

Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki is giving powerful Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr's forces three days to surrender in Basra, as clashes between Maliki's security forces and Sadr's Mahdi Army -- in which the U.S. intervenes on Maliki's side -- escalate. But with the U.S. happy about the now-abrogated Sadrist ceasefire, why is the U.S. military getting involved? The Washington Post isn't sure:

It was unclear why U.S. forces would take part in a broad armed challenge to Sadr and his thousands-strong militia on the eve of Petraeus's assessment, which the Bush administration has said would greatly influence its decision on whether to draw down troop levels.

Here's an answer. As long as Maliki is in the prime minister's chair, and as long as we proclaim the Iraqi government he leads to be legitimate, Maliki effectively holds us hostage. "I need to go after Sadr," Maliki says. "The situation is unacceptable! In Basra, he threatens to take control of the ports, and in Baghdad, he's throwing my men out of their checkpoints. Would you allow the Bloods or the Crips to take over half of Los Angeles?" And as soon as he says that, we're trapped. It simply is not tenable for Petraeus to refuse a request for security assistance from the Prime Minister to deal with a radical militia.

Now, some Iraq-watcher friends of mine point out that this is absurd. "Sadr is, of course, a thug," they say, "but he's a nationalist. And he's far less beholden to Iran than the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq or Maliki's Da'wa Party -- both of whom we're supporting! And most importantly, Sadr remains perhaps the most popular figure in Shiite Iraq. Petraeus can do business with him. This doesn't make any sense!" And they're right. It doesn't. But as long as we sponsor the Iraqi political process -- and a Sadrist doesn't actually become premier himself -- this will keep happening...

Let's Hope for Last Gasp

From the NY Times.

Memo From Belgrade
Serbian Rage in Kosovo: Last Gasp or First Breath? BELGRADE, Serbia — Nationalist hooligans may have been behind the burning of the United States Embassy here, but the feelings of anger, sorrow and betrayal over the loss of Kosovo cut across all segments of Serbian society.he world is waiting to see whether the riots on Thursday were the final spasm of anger in Serbia or the first tremor in a new Balkan earthquake. The deep-seated disappointment of even the most staunchly pro-Western Serbs suggests that there will be no easy reconciliation in the wake of the declaration of independence by Kosovo’s overwhelming ethnic Albanian majority.

Jasmina Petkovic, 31, is the kind of young Serb that European Union leaders are counting on to lead the country back into the Western fold. She favors rapid entry into the European Union for her country and was actively engaged for years in the demonstrations against Slobodan Milosevic, marching in the cold and choking on tear gas to help rid the country of its dictator.

As an organizer of arts events at the Belgrade Cultural Center, Ms. Petkovic works with foreign artists. She has an Italian boyfriend.

“If you were here on Sunday,” Ms. Petkovic told a foreign reporter over the weekend, referring to the day of Kosovo’s independence declaration a week earlier, “I would be spitting on America, cursing Europeans, saying, ‘You are stealing our territory, just because you are bigger and you can do it.’ ” The depth of her sadness and anger surprised even her, she said.

Yet on Thursday night, when she heard the breaking glass and caught the all-too-familiar scent of tear gas in her nearby apartment during the embassy attack, all she felt was disappointment and shame at the violent actions of her countrymen. “You always think this is the worst thing possible and it isn’t true,” she said in excellent English. “It’s always getting worse.”

The meaning of the Kosovo Province to Serbs is neatly encapsulated in phrases like “ancestral heartland” that do little to capture its depth and centrality as a symbol of national pride. The declaration was akin to foreign powers forcing the United States to give up the Alamo, only worse.

Supporters of Kosovo’s independence argue that Mr. Milosevic’s brutal subjugation of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo forsook Serbia’s moral and legal claim to rule the territory...

Compare and Contrast: But I Thought The Surge was "Working"?

Bush, one year ago announcing the "Surge":

...
A successful strategy for Iraq goes beyond military operations. Ordinary Iraqi citizens must see that military operations are accompanied by visible improvements in their neighborhoods and communities. So America will hold the Iraqi government to the benchmarks it has announced.

To establish its authority, the Iraqi government plans to take responsibility for security in all of Iraq's provinces by November. To give every Iraqi citizen a stake in the country's economy, Iraq will pass legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis. To show that it is committed to delivering a better life, the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion of its own money on reconstruction and infrastructure projects that will create new jobs. To empower local leaders, Iraqis plan to hold provincial elections later this year. And to allow more Iraqis to re-enter their nation's political life, the government will reform de-Baathification laws, and establish a fair process for considering amendments to Iraq's constitution.
...


For U.S., The Goal Is Now 'Iraqi Solutions'
Approach Acknowledges Benchmarks Aren't Met

By Thomas E. Ricks and Karen DeYoung
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, January 10, 2008; A01

In the year since President Bush announced he was changing course in Iraq with a troop "surge" and a new strategy, U.S. military and diplomatic officials have begun their own quiet policy shift.
...

From Gen. David H. Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker to Army privates and aid workers, officials are expressing their willingness to stand back and help Iraqis develop their own answers. "We try to come up with Iraqi solutions for Iraqi problems," said Stephen Fakan, the leader of a provincial reconstruction team with U.S. troops in Fallujah.

In many cases -- particularly on the political front -- Iraqi solutions bear little resemblance to the ambitious goals for 2007 that Bush laid out in his speech to the nation last Jan. 10.

...

Although some progress has been made and legislation in some cases has begun to slowly work its way through the parliament, none of these benchmarks has been achieved. Nor has the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki taken over security responsibility for all 18 provinces, as Bush forecast it would. Last month's transfer of Basra province by British forces brought to nine the number of provinces under Iraqi control.

...

Talk of Iraqi solutions "is largely a red herring," said Wayne White, who led the State Department's Iraq intelligence team from 2003 to 2005. "This is a catchy phrase aimed at touting -- and exaggerating -- success in Sunni Arab areas," such as Anbar, "while diverting focus away from potential downsides related to same," including the creation of local forces allied with the United States but opposed to the Iraqi government.
...

Would McCain Still be Your Favorite of the Republican Canidates, Moishe?

Of course, these remarks are hardly a winning strategy in 2008.

McCain on Iraq...100 years and counting
Posted by Moira Whelan

As everyone eyes Iowa, a late breaking development from the Straight Talk Express. McCain was just in a Q&A with reporters, and essentially said he'd be good with occupying Iraq for 100 years. Lets see how long the McCain "surge" lasts...

Here's the back and forth, footage to follow:

Q: President Bush has talked about our staying in Iraq for 50 years -- " (cut off by McCain)

McCain: "Make it a hundred."

Q: "Is that ..." (cut off)

McCain: "We've been in South Korea ... we've been in Japan for 60 years. We've been in South Korea 50 years or so. That would be fine with me. As long as Americans ..."

Q: [tries to say something]

McCain: "As long as Americans are not being injured or harmed or wounded or killed. That's fine with me, I hope that would be fine with you, if we maintain a presence in a very volatile part of the world where Al Queada is training and equipping and recruiting and motivating people every single day.

(via: http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/make_it_100.php)

Yet More Evidence We have No Idea Who, or What, We Are Dealing With Internationally

Qaeda Eyed in Slaying of Bhutto

By ELI LAKE
Staff Reporter of the Sun
December 28, 2007

WASHINGTON — American and Pakistani military leaders are seeking to account for what may be renegade commando units from the Pakistani military's special forces in the wake of the assassination of Pakistan's opposition leader and former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto.

The attack yesterday at Rawalpindi bore the hallmarks of a sophisticated military operation. At first, Bhutto's rally was hit by a suicide bomb that turned out to be a decoy. According to press reports and a situation report of the incident relayed to The New York Sun by an American intelligence officer, Bhutto's armored limousine was shot by multiple snipers whose armor-piercing bullets penetrated the vehicle, hitting the former premier five times in the head, chest, and neck. Two of the snipers then detonated themselves shortly after the shooting, according to the situation report, while being pursued by local police

...

A working theory, according to this American source, is that Al Qaeda or affiliated jihadist groups had effectively suborned at least one unit of Pakistan's Special Services Group, the country's equivalent of Britain's elite SAS commandos. This official, however, stressed this was just a theory at this point. Other theories include that the assassins were trained by Qaeda or were from other military services, or the possibility that the assassins were retired Pakistani special forces.

"They just killed the most protected politician in the whole country," this source said. "We really don't know a lot at this point, but the first thing that is happening is we are asking the Pakistani military to account for every black team with special operations capabilities."

...

The prospect that Bhutto's attackers were trained special forces operatives raises profound questions for America's policy of giving financial aid to Pakistan's military. Since the attacks of September 11, 2001, America has provided the Musharraf regime with more than $10 billion.

A close associate of Bhutto for more than two decades, Hussein Haqqani, yesterday said he believed Pakistan's security services were complicit in the assassination of his friend. "I don't think they were complicit, as in, they did it, I mean this as they allowed this to happen. Of course that includes the possibility of actual complicity. I think her security needs and concerns were not addressed," he told the Sun

...

The fact of the matter remains that Pakistani security services have many people in it who worked very closely with several jihadi groups that now work with global jihadi forces," he said. "Is it possible some of the security personnel have developed sympathy for the people with whom they used to work? Absolutely. Do we know this with certainty? No, we do not."

A Slightly Deeper Perspective on the Iraq Surge Than the Evening News

From Juan Cole, History Professor at the University of Michigan, click on the link above for more:

Myth: The US troop surge stopped the civil war that had been raging between Sunni Arabs and Shiites in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.
Fact: The civil war in Baghdad escalated during the US troop escalation. Between January, 2007, and July, 2007, Baghdad went from 65% Shiite to 75% Shiite. UN polling among Iraqi refugees in Syria suggests that 78% are from Baghdad and that nearly a million refugees relocated to Syria from Iraq in 2007 alone. This data suggests that over 700,000 residents of Baghdad have fled this city of 6 million during the US 'surge,' or more than 10 percent of the capital's population. Among the primary effects of the 'surge' has been to turn Baghdad into an overwhelmingly Shiite city and to displace hundreds of thousands of Iraqis from the capital ...

Myth: The Iraqi north is relatively quiet and a site of economic growth.
Fact: The subterranean battle among Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs for control of the oil-rich Kirkuk province makes the Iraqi north a political mine field. Kurdistan now also hosts the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) guerrillas that sneak over the border and kill Turkish troops. The north is so unstable that the Iraqi north is now undergoing regular bombing raids from Turkey ...

Myth: The reduction in violence in Iraq is mostly because of the escalation in the number of US troops, or "surge."
Fact: Although violence has been reduced in Iraq, much of the reduction did not take place because of US troop activity. Guerrilla attacks in al-Anbar Province were reduced from 400 a week to 100 a week between July, 2006 and July, 2007. But there was no significant US troop escalation in al-Anbar. Likewise, attacks on British troops in Basra have declined precipitously since they were moved out to the airport away from population centers. But this change had nothing to do with US troops ...

Something To Keep in the Back of Your Mind

China, Iran Sign $2 Billion Oil Production Agreement (Update2)

By Wang Ying and Dinakar Sethuraman

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- China Petrochemical Corp. signed a $2 billion agreement to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil field, advancing prospects for a contract on the sale of liquefied natural gas to the world's fastest-growing major economy.

The field will produce 85,000 barrels a day in four years and a further 100,000 barrels a day three years after that, China's official Xinhua news agency cited Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari as saying yesterday. Under an initial agreement in 2004, China would pay Iran as much as $100 billion over 25 years for LNG and oil and 51 percent stake in Yadavaran.

Sinopec Group, as China Petrochemical is known, hopes to talk about liquefied natural gas supplies ``later,'' Iran's state news agency IRNA said today, citing Zhou Baixiu, president of Sinopec Group's international exploration and production unit. China is ``willing'' to buy LNG from Iran, Zhou said.

China, a veto-holding member of the United Nations Security Council, has resisted pressure from the U.S. to isolate Iran and impose a third round of international sanctions over the country's nuclear program. The Chinese government wants its oil and gas producers to step up their global search for energy resources to meet rising consumption, spurred by an economy that surged 11.5 percent in the third quarter ...